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Sustaining China's Economic Growth: After the Global Financial Crisis

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The global financial crisis and ensuing economic downturn has raised many questions concerning the future of global economic growth. Prior to the financial crisis, global growth was characterized by growing imbalances, reflected primarily in large trade surpluses in China, Japan, Germany, and the oil exporting countries and rapidly growing deficits, primarily in the United The global financial crisis and ensuing economic downturn has raised many questions concerning the future of global economic growth. Prior to the financial crisis, global growth was characterized by growing imbalances, reflected primarily in large trade surpluses in China, Japan, Germany, and the oil exporting countries and rapidly growing deficits, primarily in the United States. The global crisis raises the question of whether the previous growth model of low consumption, high saving countries such as China is obsolete. Although a strong and rapid policy response beginning in the early fall of 2008 made China the first globally significant economy to come off the bottom and begin to grow more rapidly, critics charged that China's recovery was based on the old growth model, relying primarily on burgeoning investment in the short run and the expectation of a revival of expanding net exports once global recovery gained traction. Critics, however, argued that as government-financed investment inevitably tapered off, the likelihood was that global recovery would not be sufficiently strong for China's exports to resume their former role as a major contributor to China's economic expansion. The prospect, in the eyes of these critics, is that China's growth will inevitably falter. This study examines China's response to the global crisis, the prospects for altering the model of economic growth that dominated the first decade of this century, and the implications for the United States and the global economy of successful Chinese rebalancing. On the first it analyzes the strengths and weaknesses of China's stimulus program. On the second it analyzes the nature of origins of the imbalances in China's economy and the array of policy options that the government has to transition to more consumption-driven growth. On the third successful rebalancing would mean that more rapid growth of consumption would offset the drag on growth from a shrinkage of China's external surplus. Successful rebalancing would mean China would no longer be a source of financing for any ongoing US external deficit. From a global perspective China would no longer be a source of the global economic imbalances that contributed to the recent global financial crisis and great recession.


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The global financial crisis and ensuing economic downturn has raised many questions concerning the future of global economic growth. Prior to the financial crisis, global growth was characterized by growing imbalances, reflected primarily in large trade surpluses in China, Japan, Germany, and the oil exporting countries and rapidly growing deficits, primarily in the United The global financial crisis and ensuing economic downturn has raised many questions concerning the future of global economic growth. Prior to the financial crisis, global growth was characterized by growing imbalances, reflected primarily in large trade surpluses in China, Japan, Germany, and the oil exporting countries and rapidly growing deficits, primarily in the United States. The global crisis raises the question of whether the previous growth model of low consumption, high saving countries such as China is obsolete. Although a strong and rapid policy response beginning in the early fall of 2008 made China the first globally significant economy to come off the bottom and begin to grow more rapidly, critics charged that China's recovery was based on the old growth model, relying primarily on burgeoning investment in the short run and the expectation of a revival of expanding net exports once global recovery gained traction. Critics, however, argued that as government-financed investment inevitably tapered off, the likelihood was that global recovery would not be sufficiently strong for China's exports to resume their former role as a major contributor to China's economic expansion. The prospect, in the eyes of these critics, is that China's growth will inevitably falter. This study examines China's response to the global crisis, the prospects for altering the model of economic growth that dominated the first decade of this century, and the implications for the United States and the global economy of successful Chinese rebalancing. On the first it analyzes the strengths and weaknesses of China's stimulus program. On the second it analyzes the nature of origins of the imbalances in China's economy and the array of policy options that the government has to transition to more consumption-driven growth. On the third successful rebalancing would mean that more rapid growth of consumption would offset the drag on growth from a shrinkage of China's external surplus. Successful rebalancing would mean China would no longer be a source of financing for any ongoing US external deficit. From a global perspective China would no longer be a source of the global economic imbalances that contributed to the recent global financial crisis and great recession.

44 review for Sustaining China's Economic Growth: After the Global Financial Crisis

  1. 5 out of 5

    Kevin Y

    Not the most exhilarating book unless you're interested specifically into the Chinese economy and policies. However, the book is a very good reference book on the imbalances that China faced during the period near the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. Of course, those imbalances are still there and continue to cause problems. The book has a great chapter 2 for getting an idea of the four basic methodologies and analysis to determine the soundness of an economic system. All in all a highly re Not the most exhilarating book unless you're interested specifically into the Chinese economy and policies. However, the book is a very good reference book on the imbalances that China faced during the period near the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. Of course, those imbalances are still there and continue to cause problems. The book has a great chapter 2 for getting an idea of the four basic methodologies and analysis to determine the soundness of an economic system. All in all a highly recommended book for those dealing with the Chinese economy and monetary policies. Not recommended for entertainment value.

  2. 5 out of 5

    Frank Kelly

    I guess the ultimate question is how long and how far the China economic "miracle" can continue in the face of global slowdowns particularly in Europe and the US. Larry does a good job exploring the promises and threats to China's continued growth trajectory. Good primer on what we might expect for. The Roaring Dragon in years to come." I guess the ultimate question is how long and how far the China economic "miracle" can continue in the face of global slowdowns particularly in Europe and the US. Larry does a good job exploring the promises and threats to China's continued growth trajectory. Good primer on what we might expect for. The Roaring Dragon in years to come."

  3. 5 out of 5

    Julian Panero

  4. 4 out of 5

    Ryan Rutkowski

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    Can

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    Felipe Capani

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    Paul J

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    Paul Harding

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    Michael

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    Ksenia Dyadyunova

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    Stockfish

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    Nam

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    Jeffrey Becker

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    G.H.

  15. 5 out of 5

    john-paul burke

  16. 5 out of 5

    Noah

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    John

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    Daniel Tam-Claiborne

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    WTD JR

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    Vineet Tandon

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    Middlethought

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    Alex Kondrashin

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    Jeong

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    Liming Zhu

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    Mitchell Moos

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    Gleb Gorbatsevich

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    Ole Andre

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    Jerry

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    LT

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    Joseph

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    Toryn Green

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    Brian Jackson

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    Nicoricel

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    Ryan Soh

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    Canne63

  37. 5 out of 5

    Teo Graur

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    Rishabh

  39. 4 out of 5

    Diego

  40. 4 out of 5

    Renan Virginio

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    John

  42. 4 out of 5

    Ricardo Glesse

  43. 4 out of 5

    Mitchell Moos

  44. 4 out of 5

    Musab Zbeda

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