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1. Context. The economy is slowing more-than-expected, growing only percent in the second quarter. Higher frequency data indicate industrial production is weak, both imports and nonmineral exports are declining sharply, and private sector credit is moribund (Figure 1). The macroeconomic framework has been revised with growth now at percent for this year, recovering to 3 pe 1. Context. The economy is slowing more-than-expected, growing only percent in the second quarter. Higher frequency data indicate industrial production is weak, both imports and nonmineral exports are declining sharply, and private sector credit is moribund (Figure 1). The macroeconomic framework has been revised with growth now at percent for this year, recovering to 3 percent in 2010. Copper prices, however, are considerably higher than previously assumed and negotiations for a large mining project are advancing (Box 1); both these factors provide some upside potential to the outlook.


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1. Context. The economy is slowing more-than-expected, growing only percent in the second quarter. Higher frequency data indicate industrial production is weak, both imports and nonmineral exports are declining sharply, and private sector credit is moribund (Figure 1). The macroeconomic framework has been revised with growth now at percent for this year, recovering to 3 pe 1. Context. The economy is slowing more-than-expected, growing only percent in the second quarter. Higher frequency data indicate industrial production is weak, both imports and nonmineral exports are declining sharply, and private sector credit is moribund (Figure 1). The macroeconomic framework has been revised with growth now at percent for this year, recovering to 3 percent in 2010. Copper prices, however, are considerably higher than previously assumed and negotiations for a large mining project are advancing (Box 1); both these factors provide some upside potential to the outlook.

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