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The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?

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Analysis of the task capabilities required for hundreds of occupations, compared with the current and anticipated task capabilities of computer-controlled machines within the next few decades. Based on the analysis, occupations are grouped according to likelihood of automation as high risk, medium risk or low risk. Estimates are made for the number of human jobs that will Analysis of the task capabilities required for hundreds of occupations, compared with the current and anticipated task capabilities of computer-controlled machines within the next few decades. Based on the analysis, occupations are grouped according to likelihood of automation as high risk, medium risk or low risk. Estimates are made for the number of human jobs that will be taken over by machines in the next period (perhaps within two decades). It's a scientific study of an issue of great social and economic impact in the relatively near future. The presentation form is an academic paper, not a popular science style. It can be downloaded free from Oxford at: http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/down...


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Analysis of the task capabilities required for hundreds of occupations, compared with the current and anticipated task capabilities of computer-controlled machines within the next few decades. Based on the analysis, occupations are grouped according to likelihood of automation as high risk, medium risk or low risk. Estimates are made for the number of human jobs that will Analysis of the task capabilities required for hundreds of occupations, compared with the current and anticipated task capabilities of computer-controlled machines within the next few decades. Based on the analysis, occupations are grouped according to likelihood of automation as high risk, medium risk or low risk. Estimates are made for the number of human jobs that will be taken over by machines in the next period (perhaps within two decades). It's a scientific study of an issue of great social and economic impact in the relatively near future. The presentation form is an academic paper, not a popular science style. It can be downloaded free from Oxford at: http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/down...

43 review for The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?

  1. 5 out of 5

    Alix

    An important contribution to trying to quantify the impacts of automation on employment, Frey and Osborne estimate that about 47% of jobs are highly likely to be automated. This approach has largely bee superseded now by task-based analyses, such as that published by the McKinsey Institute and the OECD.

  2. 4 out of 5

    David

    The fate of jobs as a result of automation is an issue which has been discussed for a long time. Clearly, machines haven't taken all human jobs yet. On the other hand, clearly machines are doing more things now than they did in the past and new technology become available all the time. In the past, new occupations have been created fast enough to re-employ people who were replaced by machines in other jobs. Yet, the pace at which new technologies appear seems to increase over time, and (whether The fate of jobs as a result of automation is an issue which has been discussed for a long time. Clearly, machines haven't taken all human jobs yet. On the other hand, clearly machines are doing more things now than they did in the past and new technology become available all the time. In the past, new occupations have been created fast enough to re-employ people who were replaced by machines in other jobs. Yet, the pace at which new technologies appear seems to increase over time, and (whether or not the pace increases) over time we accumulate more and more activities machines are able to do. The question isn't will machines take over EVERY job - it's whether they will take over enough jobs to cause destabilizing unemployment rates under today's economic system. This study identifies which task requirements of which occupations seem to be most difficult for machines to perform as well as people. Those jobs are apt to remain in the hands of humans for decades to come. However, there are many occupations - and not just physical labor - which machines can do now or will likely be doing. For instance, the authors note certain jobs such as paralegals are already being impacted by automation. The style is an academic paper, not popular science. some quotes: "Although the extent of these developments remains to be seen, estimates by MGI (2013) suggests that sophisticated algorithms could substitute for approximately 140 million full-time knowledge workers worldwide." "Technological advances are contributing to declining costs in robotics. Over the past decades, robot prices have fallen about 10 percent annually and are expected to decline at an even faster pace in the near future" "According to our estimate, 47 percent of total US employment is in the high risk category, meaning that associated occupations are potentially automatable over some unspecified number of years, perhaps a decade or two." "we find that a substantial share of employment in service occupations, where most US job growth has occurred over the past decades (Autor and Dorn, 2013), are highly susceptible to computerisation." The paper can be downloaded free from Oxford at: http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/down...

  3. 5 out of 5

    Daniel

    If you have a job, want a job, or are in any way affected by other people having jobs, read this paper.

  4. 4 out of 5

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