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Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation: How Silicon Valley Will Make Oil, Nuclear, Natural Gas, Coal, Electric Utilities and Conventional Cars Obsolete by 2030

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The industrial age of energy and transportation will be over by 2030. Maybe before. Exponentially improving technologies such as solar, electric vehicles, and autonomous (self-driving) cars will disrupt and sweep away the energy and transportation industries as we know it. The same Silicon Valley ecosystem that created bit-based technologies that have disrupted atom-based The industrial age of energy and transportation will be over by 2030. Maybe before. Exponentially improving technologies such as solar, electric vehicles, and autonomous (self-driving) cars will disrupt and sweep away the energy and transportation industries as we know it. The same Silicon Valley ecosystem that created bit-based technologies that have disrupted atom-based industries is now creating bit- and electron-based technologies that will disrupt atom-based energy industries. Clean Disruption projections (based on technology cost curves, business model innovation as well as product innovation) show that by 2030: - All new energy will be provided by solar or wind. - All new mass-market vehicles will be electric. - All of these vehicles will be autonomous (self-driving) or semi-autonomous. - The new car market will shrink by 80%. - Even assuming that EVs don't kill the gasoline car by 2030, the self-driving car will shrink the new car market by 80%. - Gasoline will be obsolete. Nuclear is already obsolete. - Up to 80% of highways will be redundant. - Up to 80% of parking spaces will be redundant. - The concept of individual car ownership will be obsolete. - The Car Insurance industry will be disrupted. The Stone Age did not end because we ran out of rocks. It ended because a disruptive technology ushered in the Bronze Age. The era of centralized, command-and-control, extraction-resource-based energy sources (oil, gas, coal and nuclear) will not end because we run out of petroleum, natural gas, coal, or uranium. It will end because these energy sources, the business models they employ, and the products that sustain them will be disrupted by superior technologies, product architectures, and business models. This is a technology-based disruption reminiscent of how the cell phone, Internet, and personal computer swept away industries such as landline telephony, publishing, and mainframe computers. Just like those technology disruptions flipped the architecture of information and brought abundant, cheap and participatory information, the clean disruption will flip the architecture of energy and bring abundant, cheap and participatory energy. Just like those previous technology disruptions, the clean disruption is inevitable and it will be swift.


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The industrial age of energy and transportation will be over by 2030. Maybe before. Exponentially improving technologies such as solar, electric vehicles, and autonomous (self-driving) cars will disrupt and sweep away the energy and transportation industries as we know it. The same Silicon Valley ecosystem that created bit-based technologies that have disrupted atom-based The industrial age of energy and transportation will be over by 2030. Maybe before. Exponentially improving technologies such as solar, electric vehicles, and autonomous (self-driving) cars will disrupt and sweep away the energy and transportation industries as we know it. The same Silicon Valley ecosystem that created bit-based technologies that have disrupted atom-based industries is now creating bit- and electron-based technologies that will disrupt atom-based energy industries. Clean Disruption projections (based on technology cost curves, business model innovation as well as product innovation) show that by 2030: - All new energy will be provided by solar or wind. - All new mass-market vehicles will be electric. - All of these vehicles will be autonomous (self-driving) or semi-autonomous. - The new car market will shrink by 80%. - Even assuming that EVs don't kill the gasoline car by 2030, the self-driving car will shrink the new car market by 80%. - Gasoline will be obsolete. Nuclear is already obsolete. - Up to 80% of highways will be redundant. - Up to 80% of parking spaces will be redundant. - The concept of individual car ownership will be obsolete. - The Car Insurance industry will be disrupted. The Stone Age did not end because we ran out of rocks. It ended because a disruptive technology ushered in the Bronze Age. The era of centralized, command-and-control, extraction-resource-based energy sources (oil, gas, coal and nuclear) will not end because we run out of petroleum, natural gas, coal, or uranium. It will end because these energy sources, the business models they employ, and the products that sustain them will be disrupted by superior technologies, product architectures, and business models. This is a technology-based disruption reminiscent of how the cell phone, Internet, and personal computer swept away industries such as landline telephony, publishing, and mainframe computers. Just like those technology disruptions flipped the architecture of information and brought abundant, cheap and participatory information, the clean disruption will flip the architecture of energy and bring abundant, cheap and participatory energy. Just like those previous technology disruptions, the clean disruption is inevitable and it will be swift.

30 review for Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation: How Silicon Valley Will Make Oil, Nuclear, Natural Gas, Coal, Electric Utilities and Conventional Cars Obsolete by 2030

  1. 5 out of 5

    Jim Rossi

    This book read like a really long ad or a MBA student's overly long, overly quantitative business plan - long on numbers, short on critical analysis. I just graduated with a Masters degree in History, with solar energy as a focus. Seba has mastery of number-crunching, but very little sense of history, why the grid has been so successful for over a century, or the risk of unintended consequences. He makes no mention about the privacy risks that the "clean disruption" he describes will entail, whic This book read like a really long ad or a MBA student's overly long, overly quantitative business plan - long on numbers, short on critical analysis. I just graduated with a Masters degree in History, with solar energy as a focus. Seba has mastery of number-crunching, but very little sense of history, why the grid has been so successful for over a century, or the risk of unintended consequences. He makes no mention about the privacy risks that the "clean disruption" he describes will entail, which sounds a lot like "Brave New World" if you think closely about it. He doesn't. Moreover, Seba's writing is extremely boring. I recommend "Future Crimes" by Marc Goodman and "Data & Goliath" by Bruce Schneier. All three books are references for my upcoming book, "The Case of the Cleantech Con Artist: A True Vegas Tale" due out later in 2015.

  2. 5 out of 5

    Bert Long

    Very interesting and, to some degree, scary book although it is not a fictional novel. I saw the author present at a conference late last year, and his illustration of when-thing-change, they change quickly feels dead on. I am not sure I agree with the timeframes he is projecting, but even if he is off by a rough order of magnitude, we are in for a interesting ride. I found myself shaking my head repeatedly, in awe of some of the stupidity that we as a Americans and/or humans exhibit at times. As Very interesting and, to some degree, scary book although it is not a fictional novel. I saw the author present at a conference late last year, and his illustration of when-thing-change, they change quickly feels dead on. I am not sure I agree with the timeframes he is projecting, but even if he is off by a rough order of magnitude, we are in for a interesting ride. I found myself shaking my head repeatedly, in awe of some of the stupidity that we as a Americans and/or humans exhibit at times. As far as the writing, I felt some of it was a little redundant, but I suspect he wrote it from a perspective that some folks may just be reading selective chapters. He keeps beating the same dead horse again and again.

  3. 4 out of 5

    Michael Stone

    An eye opening read, even for a solar industry veteran like myself. The cost reduction and adoption trends in solar and electric vehicles are occurring faster than most energy ‘experts’ expect and have been, and will be, truly transformative. The future is bright for consumers and our planet if we let solar and electric vehicles flourish.

  4. 5 out of 5

    Rohit Grover

    Has he been paid heavily by battery and Solar companies to give these lectures and write these kinds of books? Solar is definitely cheaper, but will it ever be able to completely substitute power requirement with the help of batteries. Do we really have so much Lithium to cater to all the battery demands arising from transport and power storage requirement? Can anything ever be as feasible as a burning engine to produce power? Solar's efficiency hasn't really increased drastically and occupies s Has he been paid heavily by battery and Solar companies to give these lectures and write these kinds of books? Solar is definitely cheaper, but will it ever be able to completely substitute power requirement with the help of batteries. Do we really have so much Lithium to cater to all the battery demands arising from transport and power storage requirement? Can anything ever be as feasible as a burning engine to produce power? Solar's efficiency hasn't really increased drastically and occupies so much space. A 750MW solar is equivalent to 150MW based on its average availability across the 365 days, occupying 16sqkm of land. Is it really a viable solution? A 150MW Combined cycle will occupy far less space. How much energy do we think we can store in the batteries? There are days when there is no sun at all, days in winters, in the rainy season and we do require significant sun intensity before the panels actually start producing power. Solar with the batteries can merely augment the power demand, but, can never completely replace. Definitely not in a country like India where the population is huge and a shortage of land. We still need to think more about sustainable solutions for our country and Solar ain't one. Maybe bio-based fuels for solar backing gas turbines. Sure, nuclear will not work due to its Negative Moore's Law slope. But we all know why the world is still using them is to have nuclear technology development handy in case of a war. In a country like India where 100% electrification hasn't yet happened, thinking of EVs is detrimental to the existing grid infrastructure, which would cause instability in the grid as people move from oil to electricity. There are still millions who don't have access to electricity. There are many medium and small scale industries that are still running DG sets. It doesn't seem so easy as cranking some nos. Although his disruption forecast might come true to some extent in 1st world nations, but the ground reality in 2nd and 3rd world nations with huge population seems completely different to complement with his forecasts for 2030.

  5. 4 out of 5

    Pedro Leon de la Barra

    This book is an overly simplified assessment of a fundamental shift coming in the world of energy. I generally agree with its main point that solar energy will become the dominant form of energy to power humanity's needs. However, the analysis is too biased in favor if solar and does not do a good job of describing the challenges and limitations it faces either now or in the foreseeable future. Its worst fault is that it constantly repeats the overly optimist message of falling costs of solar wi This book is an overly simplified assessment of a fundamental shift coming in the world of energy. I generally agree with its main point that solar energy will become the dominant form of energy to power humanity's needs. However, the analysis is too biased in favor if solar and does not do a good job of describing the challenges and limitations it faces either now or in the foreseeable future. Its worst fault is that it constantly repeats the overly optimist message of falling costs of solar without really delving into the electrical, economic, political, environmental and social consequences that will arise from the massive deployment of this form of electricity generation. I still consider it a worthwhile read for two reasons: first, Tony Seba's predictions on energy, bold as they are, have generally been accurate; and second, most of us do not know the hidden costs behind the conventional sources of energy that power our lives (oil, gas, coal, nuclear, ethanol). Without really getting into the bitter debate around climate change, the author makes a compelling case about why conventional power sources seem cheap to end users only because they rely on socializing costs such as water and land use, air pollution, safety, radioactive waste disposal, insurance and many others. A glaring omission in the book is a discussion on whether the growing wind and solar industries could eventually devolve into the sort of regulatory capture that conventional energy sources commonly practice today. For example, the Edison Electric Institute has launched an attack campaign against met metering policies for solar energy systems, attacking them as a way of redistributing electric distribution costs away from wealthy people and placing a heavier burden on the less fortunate. Not addressing critical discussions like that one is a major blind spot in Seba's analysis, which makes "Clean Disruption" an enjoyable but heavily biased and incomplete source of information.

  6. 4 out of 5

    Sean Goh

    This book suffers from a few glaring flaws, such as an overabundance of numbers at the expense of analysis. The graphs and charts are low resolution, making them close to pointless. Furthermore the author optimistically projects the exponential decrease of the cost of solar into the future, which reminded me of the fantastic Silicon Valley pitch presentations promising endless growth. Read with a good dose of salt. Picked up a few fun facts: More people in the world own cellphones than have acces This book suffers from a few glaring flaws, such as an overabundance of numbers at the expense of analysis. The graphs and charts are low resolution, making them close to pointless. Furthermore the author optimistically projects the exponential decrease of the cost of solar into the future, which reminded me of the fantastic Silicon Valley pitch presentations promising endless growth. Read with a good dose of salt. Picked up a few fun facts: More people in the world own cellphones than have access to a toilet. The golden gate bridge was crowdfunded (citizens put their property up as collateral to finance the loan) The lines between the auto, energy and electronics industry are blurring. Most people don't really want a car. What we desire is mobility, and currently car ownership is the best way to guarantee that. Natural gas is harder to ship due to its gaseous state, explaining why gas markets are regional. Bio-fuel powered planes consume massive amounts of water. Producing enough bio-fuel for a transatlantic small Cessna flight consumes the daily water usage of Atlanta. Fun fact: 1.5% of nuclear reactors have had a meltdown.

  7. 4 out of 5

    Marcel Nunez

    This book was extremely disappointing. I expected a comprehensive survey of the exciting, rapidly growing field of renewable energy. Instead, I got 200+ pages of techno-optimist dogma. The book is seems exciting and provocative because of its bold predictions, but the predictions are obviously foolish. Worst among these is his insistence that natural gas will play no role in the energy picture, which contradicts all of the available data, and the outlook of the Department of Energy. It was diffi This book was extremely disappointing. I expected a comprehensive survey of the exciting, rapidly growing field of renewable energy. Instead, I got 200+ pages of techno-optimist dogma. The book is seems exciting and provocative because of its bold predictions, but the predictions are obviously foolish. Worst among these is his insistence that natural gas will play no role in the energy picture, which contradicts all of the available data, and the outlook of the Department of Energy. It was difficult to interpret the data in the figures, because the figures are of such poor printed quality that they are unreadable. The quality of the writing is also very poor. Only the most fervent fans of solar and wind will enjoy this book, because it tells them what they want to hear. For the rest of us who want real solutions, it is not worth our time.

  8. 4 out of 5

    Jose Papo

    It's great to read a book that details how Moore's Law Economics is really taking shape in the Energy and Transportation industries. The author details the technologies and companies who are disrupting our actual Oil-driven economies. And also how Solar Energy is lowering in capital costs and its combination with advanced electric storage batteries and electric vehicles will change our world for the better very fast. It's great to read a book that details how Moore's Law Economics is really taking shape in the Energy and Transportation industries. The author details the technologies and companies who are disrupting our actual Oil-driven economies. And also how Solar Energy is lowering in capital costs and its combination with advanced electric storage batteries and electric vehicles will change our world for the better very fast.

  9. 5 out of 5

    Jane Richards

    Superb analysis of the future of #solar and #EVs and the demise of fossil fuels. Recommended to my #cleantech friends... and thanks to my hubbie for such a great Xmas present.

  10. 5 out of 5

    Thomas

    I would have given it five stars for its content, but the editing and figures is a little rough, with certain paragraphs almost identical given in two chapters, missing units, and some sentences being a bit subjective sounding, which pulls it down to a four. The content on the other hand is extremely informative, and you can often read the authors enthusiasm for the subject which is really encouraging. The book is well sourced, with more than 500 references, and it build such a compelling case f I would have given it five stars for its content, but the editing and figures is a little rough, with certain paragraphs almost identical given in two chapters, missing units, and some sentences being a bit subjective sounding, which pulls it down to a four. The content on the other hand is extremely informative, and you can often read the authors enthusiasm for the subject which is really encouraging. The book is well sourced, with more than 500 references, and it build such a compelling case for why solar pv in particular will be the energy source of the future. The projections that Seba makes in 2014 have actually turned out to be conservative (end 2019) regarding price development of li-ion batteries, lidar and pv panels, which only strengthens the book’s validity. It is the development and adaption of the technologies referred to in this book, that will truly have the power to save the earth from the climate crisis, and take the power out of the hands of the energy majors in the fossil fuel industry. Fingers crossed! If you enjoyed this book or want a precursor for it visit rethinkX website and read the reports on transportation and agriculture, which are much better edited than the book, but with a very similar theme.

  11. 4 out of 5

    Lee Shaver

    When I first picked this up I was thinking I might not make it very far, given that the book is now almost five years old. But it was interesting to see that what Seba was predicting back in 2014 is the sort of trend that many others are just now waking up to. In the time past, we've gotten closer to a future of self-driving electric cars running a solar and wind powered grid with storage. While it's rather poorly edited and the barrage of statistics can be overwhelming, it's thought-provoking a When I first picked this up I was thinking I might not make it very far, given that the book is now almost five years old. But it was interesting to see that what Seba was predicting back in 2014 is the sort of trend that many others are just now waking up to. In the time past, we've gotten closer to a future of self-driving electric cars running a solar and wind powered grid with storage. While it's rather poorly edited and the barrage of statistics can be overwhelming, it's thought-provoking and encouraging. I, for one, welcome our new self-driving overlords.

  12. 4 out of 5

    Rajneesh Kadian

    Very detailed and compelling arguments for technological disruptions in energy and transportation. Scary to some extent in terms of what these disruptions could mean for jobs and asset values. Even though Tony has very compelling arguments he hasn't considered or explained the human factor like people not willing to share cars and increase in peak hour traffic. Still highly recommended this book. Amazing insights in 2014 and some of it is coming true now. Very detailed and compelling arguments for technological disruptions in energy and transportation. Scary to some extent in terms of what these disruptions could mean for jobs and asset values. Even though Tony has very compelling arguments he hasn't considered or explained the human factor like people not willing to share cars and increase in peak hour traffic. Still highly recommended this book. Amazing insights in 2014 and some of it is coming true now.

  13. 5 out of 5

    Paul

    Tony Seba is Amazing Tony Saba has it all laid out, he explains it all in this book, the disruption process is inevitable, if anybody is interested in disruptive technologies this is the book for you.

  14. 5 out of 5

    Paul Bloore

    Well worth a read I’ve read this book twice, and on the second reading was quite amazed by the fact that quite a few of Tony Seba’s predictions are coming true faster than he forecast despite my initial skepticism. Political influences are looking somewhat akin to King Canute.

  15. 5 out of 5

    Kevin Kelley

    A Brighter Future Explained A powerful explanation of how quickly advances in wind, solar, and electric vehicles will soon usher in a world of cheap clean energy. Well worth the read.

  16. 5 out of 5

    Ankit

    Wow! if what this guy writes is true then we are in for a much better world in 2030...welcome to the Age of disruption....

  17. 5 out of 5

    Bruno Konieczny

    Great content from a very optimistic writer, but not so well written. Seems to be taken from many papers and talks he has given.

  18. 5 out of 5

    Ken Switzer

    Excellent! Should be required reading for all new car buyers and home owners and to graduate high school! Or if you breathe

  19. 4 out of 5

    Jason Orthman

    Good book examine the sustainability of different energy sources and transportation methods. Good insights on solar and electric vehicles.

  20. 5 out of 5

    Eugene Bible

    A fantastic look into our all-but-guaranteed future with unstoppable, clean, cheap, renewable energy!

  21. 4 out of 5

    Dom

    There's few topics that get me as excited. Soba's book is forceful, clear and definitely energizing. Read it! 1.5% vs. 0.00007%. 7 car-dinal wins. Attack aftermarket and peak prices. Baseload solar is power. Being green and/or saving 'green'. Business model innovation to empower tech innovation. China Water For Coal Transfer Project. Community choice aggregators. Connected devices, a learning community. Decreasing vs increasing returns. De-energized wastelands. DIP-ME (Distributed, intelligent, p There's few topics that get me as excited. Soba's book is forceful, clear and definitely energizing. Read it! 1.5% vs. 0.00007%. 7 car-dinal wins. Attack aftermarket and peak prices. Baseload solar is power. Being green and/or saving 'green'. Business model innovation to empower tech innovation. China Water For Coal Transfer Project. Community choice aggregators. Connected devices, a learning community. Decreasing vs increasing returns. De-energized wastelands. DIP-ME (Distributed, intelligent, participatory, mobile and energizing). Don't serve food on the Titanic. Etha-own-goal. EV, autonomous car and solar - the symbiotic trinity. Inductive public charging. Exclude externalities, exclude sense. Knowledge based energy area. Master limited partnerships. Mobility as a service. Moore and more. Mosaic, the puzzle piece. Mosquitos or foxes. NESTed learning. Nuclear negative learning curve. PR and apathy to survive. Political markets and regulatory capture. Powerwall and WallmartEnergy. Prosumer evolution. Red Queen Syndrome. Sensorial citizenship. Short term cash flow 'optimization' fastens the Kodak moment. Socialize costs, privatize profits. Solar asset-backed securitization. SolarLease and increase. Stranded asse(t)s. Thirsty coal and gas. Toast. Tokelau wow. Two way energy and cash flow. Uninsurable? Uniform clearing price. What happens in Vegas, will be powered by solar.

  22. 5 out of 5

    Jun

    Yes, this book has some drawbacks, i.e. repetitiveness, overflowing numbers with comparatively few insights, logical lapse etc. But what the author suggests is so persuasive that I don't see any way to refute it. The three forces, i.e. solar power, electric car, and auto-piloting vehicle, are powerful technologies by themselves, but the true power comes from their synergy. Solar energy gets cheaper and cheaper as the technology advances, and this in turn, renders electricity-driven vehicles much Yes, this book has some drawbacks, i.e. repetitiveness, overflowing numbers with comparatively few insights, logical lapse etc. But what the author suggests is so persuasive that I don't see any way to refute it. The three forces, i.e. solar power, electric car, and auto-piloting vehicle, are powerful technologies by themselves, but the true power comes from their synergy. Solar energy gets cheaper and cheaper as the technology advances, and this in turn, renders electricity-driven vehicles much more competitive in the auto market. Auto-piloting will just transform how we get around in spatial dimension. On top of that, the decentralized, participatory ways of our daily lives will render this change even more revolutionary. So many factors of our lives will cost zero in the near future. There are lots of books that aspire to predict some aspects of the future, but few, really few succeeds. You can verify this only by just browsing through some books with such titles as "prediction 2015" or "the world in 2010" etc. But this book will prove itself in the future, I believe. I was anticipating to own an auto-piloting Toyota in 2025. But this book fixed my anticipation in a few spots. I now think I will be just using the network of auto-piloting vehicles, instead of owning a car. Of course, those vehicles will be run by electricity generated directly from the sun's touch.

  23. 4 out of 5

    Elizabeth

    Very hard to read. And strangely, hard to care while reading (despite being encouraged by disruptive technology!). Hard to tell the target audience - anyone who doesn't already agree with the basic principles would not find the presentation at all convincing; anyone else must just be reading this for supporting facts (which I found hard to find/follow given the referencing system). Even the font, typeface and spacing made the book physically hard to read. I read this after attending a very good an Very hard to read. And strangely, hard to care while reading (despite being encouraged by disruptive technology!). Hard to tell the target audience - anyone who doesn't already agree with the basic principles would not find the presentation at all convincing; anyone else must just be reading this for supporting facts (which I found hard to find/follow given the referencing system). Even the font, typeface and spacing made the book physically hard to read. I read this after attending a very good and inspiring talk by the author. Glad I went to the talk first, for if I had just read his book I would be far from enthused to hear more from him.

  24. 5 out of 5

    Paul Bruemmer

    Great insight to our future energy and transportation industries, uplifting and reassuring to read facts about fossil fuels being on track to being obsolete by 2030. Fantastic facts and figures supporting solar energy taking over fossil fuels as an economic reality. Inspiring writing and vision, highly recommended read.

  25. 5 out of 5

    Wesley Johnson

    Interesting points backed with data references but many typos that are evidence of a quickly written book. Slightly unbalanced in that it presents no thoughts against most of its concepts. It would have been a much stronger book if it were more balanced and carefully written.

  26. 5 out of 5

    Jason Gilmore

    Pretty motivating, makes me want to get into solar. Seems really biased on a lot of other energy sources. You walk away thinking that all other energy options other than solar and wind are bad ideas but I really doubt that's the case. Also has a TON of typos. Pretty motivating, makes me want to get into solar. Seems really biased on a lot of other energy sources. You walk away thinking that all other energy options other than solar and wind are bad ideas but I really doubt that's the case. Also has a TON of typos.

  27. 5 out of 5

    Jim Worthington

    Good Ideas with a Zealous Tone The automakers a good case for electric, autonomous vehicles, Soderbergh, and wind energy. There are times where his enthusiasm comes across as strident his overall message seems sound.

  28. 5 out of 5

    Eric

    Superb book on how game changing innovations can change the world in a very short time. The possibilities Tony Seba sees for the future of solar energy are exponential and quite possibly the age of renewable energy is really upon us!

  29. 4 out of 5

    Ashkan Ziabakhshdeylami

    The book contains a lot of exaggerations. The Author clearly tries to wow an inexperienced audience. Having said that, I agree with a lot of concepts he talks about. However, I wish that Tony Seba took a more objective approach to explaining the numbers and comparing them.

  30. 4 out of 5

    Klas Andersen

    Great book, the energy sector is extremely exciting. The book is very biased though and very optimistic on solar and wind. I would have liked a chapter with a more critical point of view on the potential for solar and wind.

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