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The Russian Natural Gas 'Bubble': Consequences for European Gas Markets (Energy & Environmental Programme)

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This report looks at the availability of Russian gas for export into Europe up to 2010. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the author suggests that a 'bubble' of low cost gas, arising from reduced internal demand and exports to former Soviet republics, will allow Russian exports to Europe to be doubled over the next 15 years. This increase can be achieved without any signifi This report looks at the availability of Russian gas for export into Europe up to 2010. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the author suggests that a 'bubble' of low cost gas, arising from reduced internal demand and exports to former Soviet republics, will allow Russian exports to Europe to be doubled over the next 15 years. This increase can be achieved without any significant contribution from new gas deposits, other than satellites of fields currently in production. This availability of relatively low cost gas will have profound consequences on European gas markets. Significant availability of low cost gas, plus Russian determination to create an additional 60 BCM of transmission capacity to bring the bubble into Europe, will provide an important impetus for gas-to-gas competition and general liberalisation of European gas markets. The bubble of Russian gas already exists. When the new pipeline export corridor is created through Belarus and Poland - through which gas is expected to start flowing in 1997 - the conditions may be created for serious downward pressure on prices and gas-to-gas competition in Europe.


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This report looks at the availability of Russian gas for export into Europe up to 2010. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the author suggests that a 'bubble' of low cost gas, arising from reduced internal demand and exports to former Soviet republics, will allow Russian exports to Europe to be doubled over the next 15 years. This increase can be achieved without any signifi This report looks at the availability of Russian gas for export into Europe up to 2010. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the author suggests that a 'bubble' of low cost gas, arising from reduced internal demand and exports to former Soviet republics, will allow Russian exports to Europe to be doubled over the next 15 years. This increase can be achieved without any significant contribution from new gas deposits, other than satellites of fields currently in production. This availability of relatively low cost gas will have profound consequences on European gas markets. Significant availability of low cost gas, plus Russian determination to create an additional 60 BCM of transmission capacity to bring the bubble into Europe, will provide an important impetus for gas-to-gas competition and general liberalisation of European gas markets. The bubble of Russian gas already exists. When the new pipeline export corridor is created through Belarus and Poland - through which gas is expected to start flowing in 1997 - the conditions may be created for serious downward pressure on prices and gas-to-gas competition in Europe.

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