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Impact of birth subsidies on fertility

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Using four household-level Canadian Census datasets, empirical analysis of a pronatal policy, Allowance for Newborn Children (ANC) of Quebec - cash benefit independent from socioeconomic factors - indicates a statistically significant impact of birth subsidy on increasing fertility. The implied increase in the probability of having at least one child due to ANC was 10.6% a Using four household-level Canadian Census datasets, empirical analysis of a pronatal policy, Allowance for Newborn Children (ANC) of Quebec - cash benefit independent from socioeconomic factors - indicates a statistically significant impact of birth subsidy on increasing fertility. The implied increase in the probability of having at least one child due to ANC was 10.6% and the impact of the subsidy was increasing in the subsidy amount. However a substantial part of the impact was due to the intertemporal adjustment of the timing of birth rather than lifetime fertility increase. ANC mostly influenced households from the lowest income group, households with annual income less than 10,000 Canadian dollars. The implied probability increase of having at least one child by ANC for the lowest income group was approximately 30%. The estimated increase in the number of childbirth by ANC during the policy window between May 1988 and September 1997 was 96,792. The estimated subsidy amount per extra birth engendered by ANC was 19,298 Canadian dollars.


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Using four household-level Canadian Census datasets, empirical analysis of a pronatal policy, Allowance for Newborn Children (ANC) of Quebec - cash benefit independent from socioeconomic factors - indicates a statistically significant impact of birth subsidy on increasing fertility. The implied increase in the probability of having at least one child due to ANC was 10.6% a Using four household-level Canadian Census datasets, empirical analysis of a pronatal policy, Allowance for Newborn Children (ANC) of Quebec - cash benefit independent from socioeconomic factors - indicates a statistically significant impact of birth subsidy on increasing fertility. The implied increase in the probability of having at least one child due to ANC was 10.6% and the impact of the subsidy was increasing in the subsidy amount. However a substantial part of the impact was due to the intertemporal adjustment of the timing of birth rather than lifetime fertility increase. ANC mostly influenced households from the lowest income group, households with annual income less than 10,000 Canadian dollars. The implied probability increase of having at least one child by ANC for the lowest income group was approximately 30%. The estimated increase in the number of childbirth by ANC during the policy window between May 1988 and September 1997 was 96,792. The estimated subsidy amount per extra birth engendered by ANC was 19,298 Canadian dollars.

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